Perth Glory will take on Adelaide United on Sunday and this will be a massive opportunity for the home side to start gaining some momentum heading into their next six games, five of which are at home.
The two sides have met before this season, with the final score being a 1-1 draw in front of a packed out HBF Park in late November.
In that fixture, I felt that Adelaide were far too good on the day and Glory didn’t do enough to even deserve anything from this game. Bruno Fornaroli’s wonder goal from outside the box was something special, however, Perth struggled to create any meaningful chances throughout the game.
The xG indicated that the away side should’ve got more from this game, with Adelaide finishing the game with an xG of 1.36 while the Glory had a final xG of 0.48, which has unfortunately been the Glory’s story for most of the season.
We struggle to create chances.
But, the most recent 2-2 draw against Melbourne City suggests there is evidence of the Glory slowly adapting their game to have a greater tempo focussed on creating chances inside the box. We should have beaten City, as we had the much better chances and on another day, Perth could’ve come home with three points against last season’s champions.
Brief overview of Adelaide
Adelaide are an interesting side. They’re currently fourth on the ladder having played 15 games, where they’ve won five games, drawn six and lost four.
Now, while they’re currently in the top four, that’s not necessarily an indication that they’re a good side.
For instance, they’ve under performed in front of goal and there are a few important statistical elements that show why.
When looking at big chances created throughout the season, they’re ranked third in the competition, with 21 created thus far, 3 behind Sydney FC and 9 behind Melbourne City.
But, despite averaging 4.9 shots on target per game they’ve only scored 23 goals. Now, that’s not too bad. However, their expected goals throughout the season suggest they should’ve scored 27 goals (following a total xG this season of 26.8).
Another reason that shows how they’ve dropped the bar with their clinicalness in front of goal is through the big chances missed this season. They’re equal first with Melbourne City for big chances missed, with 20.
Now a reason why they have to be offensively geared is that they’re pretty scratchy at the back.
So far, they’ve conceded 20 goals so as an average per game, it’s 1.33 conceded per game.
There are a few explanations for that as well.
For one, they’re average at winning the ball back in the final third, as they’ve done that 61 times. So should the Glory be under pressure in their first phase of build-up, the pressure applied by Adelaide won’t be anywhere near as intense or aggressive as to how Melbourne City did on Wednesday.
The Reds have only kept two clean sheets this season, which is the same as us however United have played more games.
They put their goalkeepers (whether it is James Delianov or Joe Gauci) under pressure for most of the game, as overall, their goalkeepers have to make 3.8 saves a game, which is the second-most in the competition.
Also, the Reds are quite undisciplined in that they’re ranked 1st in the competition for yellow cards collated (41) for this season and second for red cards (2).
How can the Glory beat Adelaide?
It will be a difficult game however Carl Veart has since confirmed that his side will go to Perth without four or five starters, due to a few players not having had the booster shot yet.
It’s unclear as to who those players are, however, this will be a big mental boost for Perth, along with the fact the game will be played at HBF Park.
Glory fan favourite and avid diary writer, Stefan Mauk, won’t be travelling with the Reds to Western Australia, as he has now completed his move to Japanese second-tier outfit Fagiano Okayama.
Now more importantly, how Glory can take down Adelaide. Firstly, Perth has to acknowledge and respect the fact that the Reds are very good in possession. They like to stretch the pitch horizontally and vertically, where they kind of camp in the opposition’s half.
Their Japanese import, Hiroshi Ibusuki, has given them an option to go long, as he can bring the ball down for the technical players to create chances.
Take their goal scored against Macarthur, as a few of their principles of play that I mentioned were used in this phase of play.
First of all, Lachlan Barr went long in the direction of Ibusuki who got in front of his marker and brought the ball down for Stefan Mauk.
Ibusuki bringing the ball down
Adelaide, due to them having their wide players hold their width, were able to create a 2v1 overload against Jake McGing, with Craig Goodwin being the free man.
All Craig Goodwin had to do was cut inside onto his right foot and bend the ball into the bottom right corner.
Goodwin’s goal
They’re going to try to create many chances throughout the game, so what the Glory can’t afford to do is produce a carbon copy of their efforts in round 1 in their first meeting against Adelaide, by sitting deep and allowing the Reds time on the ball.
What the Glory should look to do in possession, is continue playing with speed and precision, utilising those 1 or 2 touch combination efforts.
Again, looking at Adelaide’s game against Macarthur where they got pumped 4-1, the Bulls were able to get back into the game following a quick burst of passing on their left side.
This is where the Glory should look to improve their wide play, by coming inside at times. Often we’ve seen either Josh Rawlins or Antonee Burke-Gilroy or Kosuke Ota look a bit lost with what to do in possession in the final third.
To provide a potential solution to this problem, a pattern of play that should be attempted is the ball-side fullback driving with the ball and looking to play in Bruno Fornaroli. The Uruguayan is the focal point when going forward, so this pattern of play should work.
What we don’t need, is the ball side winger on the same line as the fullback as it offers no route of progression nor does it disorganise the opposition. Instead, we should look to position our wingers in the half-spaces.
Macarthur did this to a damaging effect against the Reds. How the Bulls were able to equalise was through the above pattern of play.
Craig Noone was in possession. He played the ball, breaking the lines, into the feet of Apostolos Giannou who looked to show for the ball.
Giannou motioning that he can receive the ball
Now, notice the positioning of Ulises Dávila and how he’s positioned himself in between the centre back and the full back? He’s not actively required at this moment, but the moment Giannou receives the ball, you’ll see why he’s positioned there.
Dávila receiving the ball
Notice how the gap in between the fullback and the centre back got bigger. This gave the Mexican the ability to receive in space but also able to drive into the space behind the defence.
This pattern of play would allow a player like Nick Fitzgerald or Pacifique Niyongabire (should he be fit), the ability to exploit the space with speed. Now the Adelaide defenders aren’t exactly the quickest, so if one of those two was able to receive the ball in a position like that, it would cause massive problems for the Reds.
The move above finished with Giannou scoring the goal, as Louis D’Arrigo was not aware of the striker making the run into the box.
Giannou scoring his goal
Another way the Glory can hurt the Reds is our transition. God, I sound like a broken record at times but in this competition, the majority of the centre backs are not lightning quick on the recovery.
So, our ability to counter-attack needs to be at a pretty high level, as Adelaide commit a lot of players when going forward, as I believe their rest-defence structure is just their two centre backs and possibly one of the midfielders from the double pivot.
We do have the pace to hurt Adelaide if we look to transition at speed, as players like Fitzgerald, Burke-Gilroy and I’m hoping Niyongabire’s hamstring has recovered, as all of those players are rapid going forward and we have the capabilities to execute a counter-attack.
Fornaroli is the best in the competition with his hold up play despite being 5’7, so utilising him as an outlet where we can then feed the ball in behind to a winger could be key and Macarthur showed that Adelaide are so vulnerable in defensive transition.
For instance, we could see the Glory win back the ball in our defensive half and play in Callum Timmins, who has shown in recent weeks that his ability to progressively carry the ball is improving in every game. Then having runners ahead of him, say, Fitzgerald, Timmins could play him in behind and we’d have acres of space to attack.
Macarthur’s counter-attack to seal the win
Now, I’m not saying this exact situation will occur however it is probable due to how Adelaide’s structure is in possession.
Final thoughts
Depending on who’s out for Adelaide, hopefully, two of those players are Hiroshi Ibusuki and Craig Goodwin, as those two are crucial going forward for the Reds.
This game is certainly winnable for the Glory, especially given the fact it will be at home and the Reds will be without a few key players.
In terms of how I would line up Perth against the Reds, this would be my lineup.
Starting lineup (image source: Buildlineup.com)
For me, Daniel Stynes has got to start. He’s looked very good over the last few weeks and his ability on the ball gives the team a different dimension going forward. I’d look to bring in Adrián Sardinero, but, this should be a warning to him, he’s not been overly impressive during his time here and if he wants a future at this club, then he’d have to start performing.
My score prediction for this game is a 3-1 win for the home side. This game will be imperative that Glory get the win, as the momentum it would generate would be huge.
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