Saturday’s game between Perth Glory and Sydney FC promises to be an entertaining clash given both sides head into this game with something to prove.
Glory lost their first home game in four months against Adelaide United following an unconvincing performance in front of 6657 supporters.
Sydney, well their season up until now, has fallen well and truly below expectations with the Sky Blues struggling to crack into the top six.
There’s certainly going to be pressure on both sides to perform, as the Glory made it clear prior to the game against Adelaide, that their objective is to win every game at home, while Sydney, they’ve played a lot more games than the teams behind them, so they need to get points on the board.
Breakdown of Sydney FC
Historically, the Glory have not fared too well against the Sky Blues, as Perth have defeated Sydney only 9 times in 41 games, whereas Sydney have been victorious 26 times and the points have been shared on six occasions.
At the moment, Sydney FC are currently seventh, where out of their 18 games, these are the current statistics:
- Played: 16 games
- Won: 4
- Drawn: 6
- Lost: 6
For a side that won the Championship twice in a row only a few seasons ago, they have let their standards drop dramatically and Head Coach, Steve Corica has copped it from the Sydney Supporters.
The statistics, for the most part, have been backing up the fans.
Out of a total of 73 shots taken this season, Sydney FC have 4.6 on target per game, which ranks them ninth in the competition. Now that in itself is pretty bad, however, the Glory’s isn’t much better (3.4 per game, ranked 12th).
Now, this is a surprising statistic, given Sydney are ranked 2nd in the competition for chances created (26), which further raises questions as to not only why they average such low numbers from their shots on target, but why they’re not scoring much either.
The Sky Blues are ranked ninth in the competition for average goals scored per game (1.2), which probably suggests their radar is off.
You’re right.
Expected goals scored this season is very handy when it comes to getting an indication of how many goals a team could’ve scored across the season if you base it off of their chances created. So as of now, Sydney have scored 19 goals however their expected goals this season is 27.8, which basically means, that they should’ve scored 28 goals this season.
They’re also ranked third in the competition for expected goals scored, so it just shows, the Sky Blues can only blame themselves as to why they can’t finish their chances.
Further, they’ve missed so many chances. So despite the fact they’ve created 26 chances this season, they’ve missed 18 chances as well, which puts them 3rd in the competition behind Melbourne City and Adelaide.
Defensively, they’ve slightly over-performed but it’s not to say that they’re a fantastic side from a defensive point of view.
Their expected goals conceded this season is 22.1, which places them sixth. Now, they’ve only conceded 21 goals, so that in itself isn’t bad, which means they concede on average 1.3 goals per game.
Now, this places them fourth in the competition. So as much as Sydney aren’t scoring, they aren’t letting in that much either, despite having kept only 2 clean sheets and this can be thanks to a degree, the work of their defensive efforts.
Their pressure up front will be difficult for the Glory to break through. We saw how difficult Melbourne City made it for Perth when it came to building out from the back and Sydney won’t make life much easier.
They’re ranked second in the competition for possession won in the final third (74).
What does this tell me?
They don’t allow many teams to build from the back. They put the opposition under serious pressure and more or less, they’re going to win the ball back higher up the pitch, which makes chance creation much easier – hence their high numbers in that area.
My thoughts ahead of the game
This will not be an easy game. However, the Glory need to bounce back if they are desperate to achieve finals and while the people associated with the club may be confident that we can achieve this, we’re yet to see consistent performances at a good enough standard to suggest we should be considered.
Now, we did beat Sydney earlier on this season. That was a result of Glory taking their chances and being defensively solid. This game plan was not present against Adelaide unfortunately.
There are ways to hurt the Sky Blues, as Melbourne City and more recently, the Western Sydney Wanderers have demonstrated.
If I was Richard Garcia, I would be analysing not just how we beat Sydney FC, but also how the Wanderers did as they’re a side whose game plan would be better suited to our players’ capabilities.
Transition is a big one here so there are a couple of changes I would make to the Glory’s current system.
First of all, the shape needs to be slightly adjusted to a 4-2-3-1. This will allow Daniel Stynes to roam as a number 10, but also give the three attacking midfielders suitable starting positions for them to transition at speed.
Now, the Wanderers were probably at their best against Sydney from either a set piece situation or on the break.
Firstly, notice the structure of the Sydney players in this example.
Sydney with a very high defensive line
This game would be perfect for someone like Pacifique Niyongabire, who is blessed with some pretty impressive speed. The area where Adama Traoré can advance is massive, and that along with the three midfield players (located to the middle right of the image) can make those forward runs to be played in behind.
Now Sydney won’t always allow themselves to be this open in transition, as more often than not they can get back into their compact 4-4-2 block. When it comes to breaking it down, the key is to penetrate the half-spaces with speed.
Tomislav Mrcela finding Kearyn Baccus
This way, the player in possession receiving in that area can turn and play centrally.
Penetrating that half-space doesn’t mean you have to progressively pass the ball, mostly vertically, progressively carrying that ball helps a lot more as well.
More often than not, Sydney players would look to cut off the passing lanes, so should a player drive at them, their shape can become disjointed. Phillip Cancar exploited this for the Wanderers in the build up to their first goal.
Cancar driving with the ball
Because Paulo Retre was more focused on cutting the passing lane for Ramy Najjarine, he had to come inside, which allowed space for Adama Traoré to advance in (similarly to how Kosuke Ota would function at times).
The cross was over hit, but it allowed the Wanderers to put Sydney under pressure in very dangerous areas. Najjarine was skilful and quick with his movement, baiting James Donachie to trip him. The Wanderers subsequently scored from the penalty.
Now, how does this relate to the Glory?
Firstly, the Glory aren’t going to dominate possession over Sydney, so they’re going to have to be penetrative with their movement and their passing. We’ve not really seen much of that this season so the challenge for the players is to show more bravery and intent in possession.
Too often, moves would break down as a result of us trying to overplay the ball or passing it backwards or not executing actions quicker enough. That just won’t cut it against the big teams.
Now here is where I’d make a surprise inclusion for Saturday’s game, Darko Stanojević. He was brought into the side to predominantly play as a centre back, yet we haven’t seen too much of him.
But, his debut against Western United seemed to go under the radar however there were elements of his game I quite liked.
For one, he’s left-footed. Glory don’t have a natural left-sided centre back other than him, so this will allow Darryl Lachman to advance into areas that would be more comfortable for a right-footed centre back. Further, it would give greater balance to the side in possession, as Stanojević wouldn’t feel under pressure if he was forced onto his left foot than say Jonathan Aspropotamitis or Aaron Calver.
Against Western United, I was happy to see him try to progress the ball either via a pass or even just carrying the ball, looking to draw in an opposition player. Now not to completely bash Aspropotamitis here, however, his passing range is pretty limited to just square, safe and simple balls as he showed particularly against Adelaide that he struggles to progress the ball long.
Stanojević carrying the ball
Personally, I’d give Stanojević a chance to play alongside Lachman, as it could give Glory the chance to progress the ball from either side giving more space for our midfielders to operate in.
Final thoughts
This game will not be easy by any means however there are areas where the Glory can exploit Sydney. There just needs to be some urgency and speed with how Perth play and that should be a given, particularly as they’re at home and they need to make the finals.
But like I said, Sydney will make things difficult and with players like Bobô, Max Burgess, Anthony Caceres, Adam LeFondre and new signing, Luciano Narsingh all looking to be dangerous options for the away side, Perth will have to be on top of their game.
Before I give my score prediction, I will put below my preferred lineup heading into the game.
My starting lineup (image source: buildlineup.com)
So again just to reiterate, I would first of all change the system to a 4-2-3-1 to allow better positioning for offensive transitions to occur. Fitzgerald and Niyongabire are our two quickest forwards, so they would start.
In goal, Brad Jones may be back, Liam Reddy I’m not sure however just to be safe, I’d have Cameron Cook in there. I know he made the mistake for Mo Toure’s goal on Sunday, however, he’ll learn and he’ll get better.
Kosuke Ota and Antonee Burke-Gilroy would act as the fullbacks, they need to be more progressive in the final third (whether it’s seen through their movement or their willingness to put a cross in).
As mentioned earlier, I’d give Darko Stanojević a starting debut, alongside Darryl Lachman. Aaron Calver is most likely out and Jonathan Aspropotamitis hasn’t been great over the last few games.
Brandon O’Neill and Callum Timmins to anchor, however, I would instruct O’Neill to act as the more reserved pivot while Timmins advances.
Ahead of them would be Nick Fitzgerald, Daniel Stynes and Pacifique Niyongabire. There will be a fair bit of focus on the players supporting Bruno Fornaroli, as for a lot of them, they’ve been slacking and not contributing as much as they can be when going forward.
And as just mentioned before, the main man, Bruno Fornaroli. Enough said really.
So with Brad Jones and Luke Bodnar, as well as even Daniel Sturridge potentially making the bench for this fixture, there can be no excuses.
My score prediction is a 2-1 win for the home side. Things need to start happening for the Glory. It was a poor display on Sunday, so they need to improve otherwise the gap between 11th and finals will grow even bigger.
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